Research on improved SEIR model predicting UK Coronavirus variant Omicron outbreak

ZiHan Ma

doi:10.1117/12.2638884

17 May 2022 Research on improved SEIR model predicting UK Coronavirus variant Omicron outbreak

ZiHan Ma

Proceedings Volume 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022); 122592X (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2638884
Event: 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing, 2022, Kunming, China

Abstract

As it is reported, the detailed COVID-19 cases have exceeded 400 million worldwide. And there is another outbreak of the COVID-19 infection in England due to the emergence of a new variant: Omicron. Through implementing distinctive control measures, most vaccination has been accomplished to an expansive levels in this country and is as of now in advance. Due to the popularity of vaccines and the success of anti-epidemic measures, the English government decide to announce the last legal restrictions being lifted by February 24, which means that English will be the first country to declare victory over COVID-19. To judge whether the decision is correct or not, we estimate confirmed cases, death, daily new confirmed cases and trend through modeling and simulating method. Considering the effectiveness of vaccines, we raise a new epidemic model named SEIR-V. Our results appear that if transmission rate increases by 15% compared to the current rate due to unwinding of social distancing conditions, the daily new cases can crest to 200k per day around April 1, 2022. The combination of vaccination and controlled legal restrictions is the key to tackling the emergency of the new variant Omicron epidemic. Considering that the new variant strains increase transmissibility and have high resistance to vaccines, the English government should continue the current epidemic prevention measures to avoid the emergence of a second wave of the epidemic.

Citation Download Citation

ZiHan Ma "Research on improved SEIR model predicting UK Coronavirus variant Omicron outbreak", Proc. SPIE 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022), 122592X (17 May 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2638884

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KEYWORDS

Mathematical modeling

Data modeling

Legal

MATLAB

Computer simulations

Resistance

Proteins

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