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In 2021, the national economy gradually recovered from the epidemic. Under the development plan of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutralization" mentioned in the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, driven by the leading stocks in the new energy sector, the A-share market environment has steadily improved and the market is expected to be repaired. In line with the central bank's RRR reduction policy in July, monetary liquidity has also been further relaxed. In this case, the Shanghai composite index was maintained at 3200 points throughout the year, although there were fluctuations caused by valuation deviations and events. But it is also an important sign of the overall improvement of China's economy. At the beginning of 2022, the central economic work conference proposed steady growth. The conference required that the economic work in 2022 should be stable, seek progress while maintaining stability, and the macro policies should be stable and effective. After setting this development tone, both the monetary policy of the central bank and the credit scale of commercial banks have been adjusted, and the stock of structural loans has increased, which has played an important role in the economic recovery under the prevention and control of the epidemic. Then, in the recent April of 2022, the A-share market was affected by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, and the RMB assets depreciated seriously. Coupled with the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, the Shanghai stock index fell all the way below 3000 points. The previous high valuation sectors such as medicine, new energy, Internet and other industry leading stocks were also seriously damaged. The market sentiment is low and the trading volume shrinks, as if there was a signal of bull bear market conversion. In this regard, we have to think about where the future of Shanghai stock index is and whether we can make a reasonable prediction of the future situation with the help of existing data and models. The paper takes the daily closing price data from the SSE 50 index from 2004 to 2022 as the research sample, using the ARMA model to analyze the yield. Also, it conducts the thorough research on the stock index, which predicts the yield of 300 trading days in the future. According to the model, it is predicted that the yield rate will fluctuate between -0.03 and 0.03 in the next 300 trading days. Through predicting the data obtained from the model, we put forward related suggestions on current government policy and personal investment.
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