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The simulation of various land use change scenarios holds significant importance for achieving dual carbon objectives. This study zeroed in on Qinghai Province, exploring the spatial and temporal evolution as well as future trends of carbon storage through a blend of the InVEST model's carbon storage module and the PLUS model, utilizing land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. Our results highlighted the dominance of grassland and unused land in Qinghai, with minimal changes in land use patterns over the past two decades. Notably, construction land witnessed the steepest increase, while cropland and grassland acreages underwent the most significant decrease. Under a natural development scenario, cropland, grassland, and construction land decreased, whereas forest land, water bodies, and unused land expanded. Conversely, in the cropland protection scenario, cropland acreage increased, thereby safeguarding food security. The ecological protection scenario led to an increase in forest land and grassland, effectively preserving the ecosystem. Remarkably, the total carbon storage in Qinghai Province remained stable across the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, with grassland emerging as the top contributor. Higher carbon storage concentrations were observed in the eastern and southern regions. Projecting forward to 2030, the total carbon storage in Qinghai Province exhibited varying trends of decline or increase depending on the scenario, with the ecological protection scenario emerging as the most favorable for future development. These insights provide a crucial understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon storage in Qinghai Province, serving as a scientific reference for implementing sustainable development strategies, accelerating ecological construction, and charting the dual carbon strategy in Qinghai Province.
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