In recent decades integration of GIS platform is the primary for land use change monitoring and forecast it. Among various methods of GIS integration in agricultural or forest studies have a very important role in region such the Republic of Mari El. Land use change can directly transform wide landscapes, impact on the biodiversity and ecoproductivity. Hence, observations and methods needed to quantitatively assessment land cover dynamics that influence the sustainability of forest management. The relevance of the problem is due to the importance of forest disturbances monitoring, tracking of changes and defense from emergency situations. The main objective of this research is to create the maps of land use change of the Republic of Mari El using remote sensing data and geospatial technologies. GISbased map algebra was applied for calculating land use change with the use of integration of remote sensing data. The resulting maps show how different types of land use and land cover parameters have changed. The entire modeling approach support the essential logic of probabilistic indicates of change.
The study presents the results of multistage of classification using supervised algorithm of Maximum Likelihood to assessment the forest using of multitemporal Landsat (summer-autumn) images for mapping cover disturbance in Middle Volga region. Analysis of the degree of forest cover disturbance was determined based on by biotic (fires, thematic map of the state of forest cover) and complex factors (forest disturbance map using the Disturbance Index) for 1985-2014. Calculation of the influence degree (“weight index”) of each factor on the disturbance of forest cover was made. The integrated disturbance map was obtained based on a bivariate statistical analysis of raster data. The algorithm of geospatial analysis of thematic raster data allowed determining the degree of correlation between the indicators of the revealed violations of forest cover in the Middle Volga region and various factors affecting these violations. For classification and validation of thematic maps of forest cover disturbance was used test sites with independent field data for each satellite Landsat image of middle spatial resolution. Cross-validated overall accuracies, ranged between 81-87%, showed high degree of agreement between the forest cover disturbance map and the ground truth data. Research results can be applied for the long term forest monitoring and development of forest management plan for the investigated region.
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