In order to improve the probability of rescuing the crew members who have fallen into the water after the abandonment accident at sea, this paper proposes a way to set up multiple fixed interval marine emergency rescue stations to improve the success rate of self rescue and shore based rescue after the crew members have fallen into the water when the abandonment accident at sea occurs. On the basis of establishing the research index system for planning and evaluating the setting of marine emergency rescue stations, entropy weight method, cloud model theory and matter-element extension theory are used to evaluate the rescue effect of sailors who have set up several marine emergency rescue stations on the centerline of the customary route. Taking the setting of several fixed marine emergency rescue stations on the route centerline of the open waters from Chengshanjiao to Changshan Waterway as an example, the safety level of self rescue and rescue of crew members in the waters with different spacing marine emergency rescue stations is evaluated. The results show that the setting of marine emergency rescue stations with an interval of about 4 nautical miles can effectively improve the rescue success rate on the basis of saving investment, This method can provide reference for the design of emergency rescue stations in other coastal waters in the future.
In view of the limitation that the static risk assessment is difficult to describe the dynamic characteristics of risk factors, this paper proposes a dynamic risk assessment method for navigation safety in exploration waters based on dynamic Bayesian network. Firstly, given the uniqueness of exploration operation, the navigation risk index system of exploration waters is established; And then the prior probability of the node is determined by using the improved D-S evidence theory, calculating the weight of the node by the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, and the conditional probability distribution of the intermediate node is calculated by the weighted distance formula, parameters of the model can be obtained; Then the navigation risk assessment model based on dynamic Bayesian network dynamically predicts the probability of maritime navigation risk accidents; Finally, sensitivity analysis is used to identify the key risk factors of accidents. The research results show that human factor, navigation environmental factor and management factor are determined as the key risk factors. The navigation risk is large during the transition period from preliminary exploration to detailed exploration, which is in good agreement with the actual evaluation of experts and the statistical law of historical data, indicating that the model can better predict the dynamic navigation risk level of construction waters.
In order to verify the safety and effectiveness of setting up a compound channel under the condition of limited input cost, this paper selects Dongjiakou port as a specific research object and adopts Set Pairs Analysis-Analytic Hierarchy Process (SPA-AHP) to establish an evaluation index system to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of its current channel and the pre-setting compound channel. Firstly, select safety and effectiveness as the first-level indicators to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for the channel. Then, the AHP is used to calculate the comprehensive weight value of each index. The SPA theory is used for the evaluation of comprehensive grade of the channel. The results show that the establishment of Dongjiakou port compound channel has higher navigation efficiency, increases economic and social benefits, greatly reduces the possibility of ship collision and other accidents, and the safety situation tends to be safe. This method can provide effective theoretical basis and support for the establishment of compound channel in coastal ports in the future.
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